ABSTRACTS
The Effect of the Availability Heuristic on Perceptions of Fall RiskAuthor: Jessica Wiseman, MPH, EMT | | Associate Authors: Elizabeth Sheridan, MS, Carmen E. Quatman, Dr.
Introduction Falls are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. Objective To evaluate the association of the availability heuristic (mental shortcut assigning significance to events easily recalled) with perceptions of fall risk. Methods A survey was distributed to a database of research volunteers who met inclusion criteria (age 18+ years, residing in the United States, able to read/write in English). The survey contained mechanisms of injury (earthquake, tornado, mass shooting, fire, assault, car or motorcycle accident [MVA], cancer, and fall from standing), and participants were asked to estimate the likelihood that they will experience an injury that requires medical care or end-of-life event due to that mechanism and report whether someone they know (including self) had received medical care or experienced an end-of-life event due to each mechanism. Chi square tests were used to evaluate association between personal experience with a mechanism of injury and perceived risk. Results A total of 894 individuals participated in the study. Personal experience by self or acquaintance was significantly correlated with every mechanism of injury. Pearson chi-square values for each mechanism were earthquake 49.088 (p < 0.001), tornado 63.856 (p < 0.001), mass shooting 46.489 (p < 0.001), fire 31.328 (p < 0.001), assault 70.386 (p < 0.001), MVA 25.087 (p < 0.001), cancer 15.502 (p = 0.004), and falls 65.351 (p < 0.001). Conclusion A higher proportion of those who had personal experience with a mechanism of injury rated their risk of experiencing a related injury in their lifetime as likely or extremely likely. These results support the hypothesis that the availability heuristic influences perceptions of injury risk, including fall risk. Understanding the perception of risk for injury is essential for developing effective prevention strategies that motivate behavior change. Increasing awareness of the incidence and serious consequences of falls may improve understandings of fall risk and aid the prevention efforts of first responders.
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